WASHINGTON, DC—Douglas Schoen and Patrick Caddell have been warning their same party incumbents of the dismal prospects they face in the November midterms since last summer when health care reform began tanking in the polls.
Evidence of this phenomenon has already occurred in key races in
, Virginia , and New Jersey , where conservative republican’s bested their liberal opponents along with the recent primaries which showed a net gain for conservative candidates. There is an unprecedented 2,300 new candidates seeking elected office and polls indicate they are in a strong position to win come fall. Massachusetts
Only 29 percent of respondents in a June Washington Post/ABC News Survey believed their representative deserved reelection, which is 5 percentage points lower than the same poll conducted before the 1994 republican majority victory. Moreover, a recent
poll found that 60 percent of voters will support a new candidate rather than an incumbent, with only 32 percent support. Gallup
With Congress’ 15 percent approval rating, a $13 trillion deficit, near 10 percent unemployment, 58 percent favor repealing health care reform, and the Gulf oil spill, chances for the democrats to hold their House majority are slim.